Understand what changed

Business result

Protect completed purchases and net contribution while finding a testable explanation.

Next step

Understand the cause

Working output

Project brief

Unit of analysis

One conversion incident × device × market × completed daily window

Decision owner

User Acquisition Lead

Hypotheses and diagnostic checks

• Compare the release and source changes before deciding whether to roll back checkout.
• Define a check that can answer: What changed, when, and where did the loss first appear?
• Define a check that can answer: Which movements belong to this incident, and which are independent or reporting delays?
• Define a check that can answer: Which product, setup or rule changes could explain the movement?
• Define a check that can answer: What decision is due, who owns it, and which check would change the action?
• Record the observation that would disprove each explanation.

Acceptance checks

• The incident, affected scope and decision deadline are explicit.
• Source gaps and independent episodes remain separate from the primary incident.
• The proposed next check names an owner, temporary response and reversal condition.

Deliverables

• A diagnosis with competing explanations and the next check
• Agreed scope, source requirements, responsibilities and acceptance checks.
• A working brief for a readiness and delivery conversation, not a completed investigation.