Scaling & saturation / SELF-GUIDED

Check the evidence for a response curve

Test whether spend history contains a useful comparison before fitting a curve.

Start the first check Discuss a difficult question

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Your question

What do you want to understand?Which result matters?

CHECK 1 / 3

Map spend against completed outcomes

Use a consistent time unit and record spend, the business outcome and the relevant delay. Inspect where spend actually varies.

Check your interpretation. A fitted curve can exist even when the observed spend range is narrow.

Which spend levels are observed often enough to compare?Where are you with this check?

If you cannot resolve this check

If the intended budget lies outside observed support, mark the estimate as extrapolation.

CHECK 2 / 3

Find what moved with spend

Annotate promotions, seasonality, auction changes, creative refreshes and product releases.

Check your interpretation. Spend may rise because demand rose. A correlation can mix both directions.

Which outside changes could explain the apparent response?Where are you with this check?

If you cannot resolve this check

If all spend changes coincide with other changes, the history may not identify a separate spend effect.

CHECK 3 / 3

Decide what the evidence supports

Choose between descriptive modelling, additional data or a bounded spend experiment. State the uncertainty and valid range.

Check your interpretation. A curve alone does not justify a precise budget optimum.

What next observation would make the curve more decision-useful?Where are you with this check?

If you cannot resolve this check

Seek review when confounding, carryover or limited variation dominate the conclusion.

What would help you move forward?

You can continue with partial observations. Recording a check does not verify its conclusion.

Work with your data

Carry your question and observations into Project Studio. Refine the scope, then use Builder and CSV Analyzer. Sign-in is required.

Keep the next check

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A QUESTION WORTH DISCUSSING

Bring the part you could not resolve.

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